UFC 273 betting preview: Can phenom Khamzat Chimaev dominate again?

There are plenty of viewing and betting options on this ideal sports weekend. You’ve got NHL, NBA, the return of MLB plus The Masters, just to name a few. One of the main attractions is Saturday’s UFC 273, which features the return of the most hyped young fighter mixed martial arts has seen in years.

The event is co-headlined by men’s featherweight and bantamweight title bouts with Alexander Volkanovski taking on “The Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung plus Aljamain Sterling and Petr Yan set for a title unification rematch.

The undisputed people’s main event, however, sees welterweight phenom Khamzat Chimaev return to the Octagon against former title challenger Gilbert Burns.

Chimaev has gone through his competition like a buzzsaw and could realistically jump the queue to earn a title shot after just his 11th pro bout if he manages a decisive win over the No. 2-ranked contender in the division.

The undefeated 27-year-old has landed 254 total strikes in his four UFC bouts and hasn’t been hit with any consequential strikes or meaningful offence. His four wins all resulted in him taking home a Performance of the Night bonus.

“Khamzat Chimaev is one of the baddest dudes that I’ve ever come across,” UFC president Dana White told the Jim Rome Podcast this past December about a month after Chimaev choked Li Jingliang unconscious at UFC 267. “He is literally willing to fight anyone and doesn’t care what the timeframe is or any of that stuff. Nobody wants to fight this guy. Everybody wants to get out on social media and say this or that, but when it really comes down to it nobody is trying to fight Khamzat Chimaev. I don’t blame them.”

Burns officially accepted the challenge. Can the veteran spoil the party?

UFC 273, which takes place at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Fla., also features top-10 strawweight contenders Mackenzie Dern and Tecia Torres, Canadian Mike Malott making his UFC debut, rising Irish prospect Ian Garry’s sophomore fight and much more.

Here’s a closer look at the three featured matchups at UFC 273 plus some parlays and prop bet options.

ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI vs. CHAN SUNG JUNG
Volkanovski -700 | Jung +500 | Draw +8000
Volkanovski by decision -125 | Jung by decision +1000
Volkanovski by stoppage +175 | Jung by stoppage +700

Volkanovski was initially set for a trilogy bout with Max Holloway but the organization needed to pivot after Holloway sustained an injury. Fan favourite Chan Sung Jung’s name was called, so the South Korean star is getting his first title shot since fighting Jose Aldo in 2013.

Volkanoski is coming off a thrilling title defence against Brian Ortega in September. The Australian is 10-0 in the UFC but has never been favoured by this much in a fight. Volkanoski opened as a -330 favourite and the line has since ballooned to -700 for the champ.

Jung is a bigger knockout threat than Volkanoski’s recent opponents and he also possesses fight-finishing submission skills. Though when you rewatch how the champ was able to escape from a guillotine then D’arce then triangle against Ortega, whose submissions are more dangerous than Jung’s, it makes one wonder if a KO shot is the Korean Zombie’s only legitimate chance here.

Jung fights relatively flat-footed and plods forward. Volkanoski moves extremely well and is quicker. I see Volkanovski picking Jung apart while keeping his opponent’s back foot near the cage. Jung’s legs will get kicked plenty. A counter off one of those kicks or a well-timed uppercut are two ways Jung can land a fight-changing punch.

Pick (and preferred prop bet): Volkanovski (by decision -125)

ALJAMAIN STERLING vs. PETR YAN
Yan -450 | Sterling +350 | Draw +8000
Yan by decision +120 | Sterling by decision +700
Yan by stoppage +140 | Sterling by stoppage +750

This is a rematch of a UFC 259 championship fight that ended when Yan was disqualified for landing an illegal strike to the head of a downed opponent resulting in the first time a UFC title changed hands due to a DQ. Sterling hasn’t fought since that tilt 13 months ago. Yan, meanwhile, won a unanimous decision over Cory Sandhagen to earn an interim belt and a rematch with Sterling.

Yan opened as a modest -145 favourite in the first bout, yet the rematch opened with Yan at -350.

Is this an overcorrection on the market? It very well could be when you consider Yan will be fighting without his usual cornermen after they reportedly had their visas denied. This could have a significant impact the longer this one goes.

Yan got up to as much as a -550 favourite for this fight but the line has moved slightly in the direction of Sterling during fight week. Yan was ahead on the scorecards and on his way to winning their first fight before his illegal knee, however it was a much more competitive fight than these odds indicate.

Sterling had a decent amount of success against Yan, especially in the opening two rounds, landing some big knees and being the more aggressive fighter early.

Once Sterling began to slow down due to a combo of fatigue and damage, Yan started pulling away. Yan is patient while maintaining a high strike rate (5.98 significant strikes landed per minute) and is among the most well-rounded fighters on the UFC roster.

Sterling hasn’t lost since being knocked out by Marlon Moraes more than four years ago. The jiu-jitsu black belt has come through for underdog bettors thrice on his current winning streak. Sterling has never been this big of an underdog in his career.

Pick (and preferred prop bet): Sterling (by decision +700). This is more about the relative value on the Sterling side than it is me thinking Yan will lose the fight.

GILBERT BURNS vs. KHAMZAT CHIMAEV
Chimaev -500 | Burns +380 | Draw +8000
Chimaev by decision +400 | Burns by decision +700
Chimaev by stoppage +137 | Burns by stoppage +750

There hasn’t been an MMA prospect quite like Chimaev in MMA’s modern era…perhaps ever considering the constant evolution of skill in the sport.

Burns’s lone loss in the 170-pound division was to reigning champ and current pound-for-pound king Kamaru Usman. Burns managed to rock Usman early with power punches but it wasn’t enough to put away the champion. He was eventually worn down and finished by Usman in the third round.

Unless he capitalizes on hurting Chimaev early, I see yet another rag dolling courtesy of “Borz.”

Burns has proven knockout power and top-level submission skills – his ability to snatch up an arm from the bottom could come in handy against Chimaev.

Chimaev’s durability has not yet been tested in the UFC, or in his entire career, so that variable remains. None of Chimaev’s pro MMA bouts have lasted longer than 6:15. The multiple-time Swedish national champion in freelance wrestling should be able to dictate where the fight takes place.

Pick (and preferred prop bet): Chimaev (by stoppage -225)

I bought into the hype long ago and predicted he’d be champion and No. 1 pound-for-pound by year’s end. I’m staying firmly planted on the hype train. Perhaps he looks to prove a point and attempts to submit the multiple-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion, but I envision a knockout or a furious ground-and-pound stoppage. Don’t care how chalky it is. This is my best bet of the night.

PARLAYS AND PROP BETS

Mike Malott inside the distance (+125): Malott had a quick submission win on Dana White’s Contender Series to earn his UFC contract. That highlight finish is fresh in the public’s collective mind and I sense it impacted the betting line here, so I don’t love this price on Malott given his relative inexperience at this level. Still, I’m riding with the Canadian to beat Mickey Gall this weekend. I don’t expect either welterweight to be too reserved wherever the fight takes place. This one could be quite entertaining, if not a bit slightly sloppy on the feet. There’s plenty of potential for fun ground exchanges and submission attempts.

Malott is completely different physically than he was early in his MMA career when he competed as a lanky featherweight (145 pounds). Now at 170 pounds, Malott should be the stronger fighter with a wrestling advantage. If the name Malott sounds familiar to hockey fans it’s because the fighter’s brother, Jeff, currently plays in the Winnipeg Jets organization.

Ian Garry inside the distance (+105): This same prop, albeit at a worse price, cashed as one of my top plays back at UFC 268 when the young Irishman made his UFC debut. I’m dipping into that same well. He’s fighting +300 underdog Darian Weeks, who went the distance with Bryan Barberena in his UFC debut this past December. This line opened much closer with Garry at -180 and Weeks at +150, but has since moved significantly.

Barberena is a respected veteran and Weeks was able to take him down four times and land more than 100 significant strikes. Weeks shouldn’t be overlooked here, but I expect the younger, taller Garry to put his reach to good use while looking for crisp distance counter shots.

My main concern with Garry is his chin if he becomes overzealous. No, he’s never been finished and has a perfect pro record, but he seeks statement wins and is liable to occasionally leave his head high and chin exposed backing out of exchanges. Once the threat of a takedown is eliminated, I expect Garry to turn up the heat. Garry by stoppage in round two at +450 is jumping out at me.

Double decision parlay (+104): The preliminary card has two women’s bouts – Aspen Ladd vs. Raquel Pennington and Piera Rodriguez vs. Kay Hansen – and I anticipate both will go the full 15 minutes. Bet separately, Ladd-Pennington going the distance is -275 and Rodriguez-Hansen is -200.

Chalk it up parlay (+110): By combining UFC 273’s four biggest moneyline favourites Volkanovski (-700), Chimaev (-500), Yan (-450) and Garry (-400) you can get a plus-money return if oddsmakers projected the outcomes correctly.

Warning: Two losing strategies long-term when betting on MMA is frequently betting moneyline favourites and/or grouping together heavy moneyline favourites in the hopes of cashing a more profitable parlay bet. This chalky parlay is risky, even though on paper it may not seem it, since Sterling and Weeks are both live dogs in my estimation.

For what it’s worth, I’m on board with the oddsmakers in the sense I feel most confident in Chimaev (-500) and Volkanovski (-700) emerging victorious. A straight moneyline parlay with those two ends up as -270 wager.

MAIN CARD
— Alexander Volkanovski vs. Chan Sung Jung
— Aljamain Sterling vs. Petr Yan
— Gilbert Burns vs. Khamzat Chimaev
— Mackenzie Dern vs. Tecia Torres
— Vinc Pichel vs. Mark Madsen

PRELIMINARY CARD
— Ian Garry vs. Darian Weeks
— Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Marcin Tybura
— Aspen Ladd vs. Raquel Pennington
— Mickey Gall vs. Mike Malott
— Alexey Oleynik vs. Jared Vanderaa
— Anthony Hernandez vs. Josh Fremd
— Piera Rodriguez vs. Kay Hansen
— Julio Arce vs. Daniel Santos

(All betting odds listed above via Bet365 as of Friday evening)