towards a Macron/Le Pen second round

According to a daily survey called “rolling poll” – produced by Ipsos-Sopra Steria, the French questioned this Wednesday would vote in the first round of the presidential election next Sunday at 72%, whereas a week ago only 69% of those polled declared their desire to exercise their right to vote.

In 2017, 77.7% of voters turned out at the polls in the first round and 74.5% in the second round. A few short days before the first round, interest in the presidential election seems to be revived in terms of participation. That said, on the ground, things seem to be different with a podium, made up of Emmanuel Macron (27%), Marine Le Pen (23%) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (17%) with voting intentions of two figures, the trio is far far from the rest of the candidates who for the best of them is at 8.5%.

Indeed, Valérie Pécresse (LR) and Eric Zemmour (Reconquest!) are now less than 9% of voting intentions this Wednesday. They each lose 0.5 points and are now at 8.5% and 8%. They are followed by the ecologist Yannick Jadot (6%) of Europe Ecologie-Les Verts (EELV), who is also in the downward trend almost to the point. Next come Fabien Roussel (3.5%) of the French Communist Party (PCF) who is running for the first time, the peasant candidate Jean Lassalle (2.5%-0.5pt) of Résistons who is on his third attempt, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (2% -0.5pt) Debout la France (DLF), Anne Hidalgo 2% Socialist Party (PS), Philippe Poutou 1% New Anti-Capitalist Party (NPA) and Trotskyist Nathalie Arthaud 0.5% Workers’ Struggle (LO) .

These misplaced points and half-points benefit the useful vote of Marine Le Pen and also Jean-Luc Mélenchon who grab votes from Zemmour (11.5% a week ago) from Pécresse, from the candidate (PS) Anne Hidalgo (2%) and left-wing parties in general. What we can say three days before the election is that a semblance of suspense remains for the first place in the first round of the presidential election, which President Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen are vying for and that also a qualifying place if one can say it is played between the latter and Jean-Luc Mélenchon who has not yet completely abdicated with regard to the dynamic engaged.

But, if we stick to these statistics, we should find in the second round of the presidential election the same scenario as in 2017 with a final duel Macron / Le Pen. This promises a tight finish! Indeed less than a month ago on March 11, Emmanuel Macron was 13.5 points ahead of his likely rival in the second round, while today the gap is only 4 points. Marine Le Pen has gained +0.5 points every day since March 17. She is the first in terms of security of the vote in the first round at 83%.

She also recovers 5 points to the detriment of “Reconquest!” » of service troublemaker Eric Zemmour and consolidates his electoral base (+2 among the “without diplomas” (36%), +3 for the “poor categories” (33%) thanks to his purchasing power formula which seems to be attractive. The boss of the National Rally therefore remains the runner-up, for the moment undisputed.Emmanuel Macron remains stable at 27% and continues to stay the course until the vote on Sunday.Nothing to panic, but nothing to be totally in his little ones shoes either for the president-candidate.Behind the two favorites, the outsider Jean-Luc Mélenchon is in good dynamics to play the spoilsports.The leader of rebellious France gained another 1 point on Wednesday but he remains far from the second round 6 points behind the candidate of the National Rally, which a few days before the election is a practically insurmountable gap.