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 Premier League relegation: Who is going down to the Championship and favorites in promotion race
Sporting News

Premier League relegation: Who is going down to the Championship and favorites in promotion race

by Adam Said April 6, 2022

Premier League spots are worth tens — if not hundreds — of millions of dollars, so when it comes to promotion and relegation in the English top flight, everything is on the line.

Entering the stretch run of the 2021-22 season, the battles for places in next season’s Premier League are heating up.

In the Premier League, relegation appears to be down to a three-team race at the moment, with at least one side in particular looking near certain to suffer the drop. 

In the second division Championship, there are two automatic promotion spots to the Premier League up for grabs, plus four more places in the promotion playoff, which will decide the third team to play in the Premier League next season.

MORE: Premier League title & Champions League races

Premier League relegation: Which teams are going down?

Norwich City are seven points from safety and are almost assured of going down, according to FiveThirtyEight (>99 percent). Watford are only three points from safety, but they’ve already played 30 matches which is why they’re tabbed with an 83 percent chance of relegation.

MORE: Newcastle’s January transfer window moves

The table below is updated through Wednesday, April 6. Relegation probabilities via FiveThirtyEight.

Place Team PTS GP GD Next Match Relegation
probability
14. Brentford 33 31 -11 vs. WHU, Apr. 10 <1%
15. Newcastle 31 30 -21 vs. WOL, Apr. 8 5%
16. Leeds United 30 31 -33 @ WAT, Apr. 9 24%
17. Everton 25 29 -20 vs. MUN, Apr. 9 49%
18.* Burnley 24 29 -17 @ NOR, Apr. 10 37%
19.* Watford 22 30 -28 vs. LEE, Apr. 9 83%
20.* Norwich City 18 30 -45 vs. BUR, Apr. 10 >99%

* = The bottom three teams are relegated to the second-tier Championship.

Burnley stopped a four-match losing streak with a massive April 6 win against 17th-placed Everton to drop their relegation chances from 53 percent to 37 percent. The Clarets still have a game or two in hand on the teams around them, giving them a fighting chance.

Leeds and Everton were at one point in decent position earlier this season, but that cushion in the table wore away and they were sucked into the vortex. While Leeds have two wins and a draw to give them some breathing room (relegation chances knocked down from 39 to 24 percent), two straight losses see the Toffees now just one point above the drop zone and with the third most likely chance to go down (49 percent).

Newcastle, under new ownership, spent big money to improve their squad in the January transfer window and it paid off with a nine-match unbeaten streak that saw their probability of relegation slashed from 66 percent to just five percent. But three straight losses have kept them close to the bottom bunch.

Premier League promotion race

With three teams dropping from the Premier League, three teams must rise up to replace them.

The Championship, the second tier of professional soccer in England, automatically sends the top two finishers to the Premier League. The third team is determined via a promotion playoff, with the teams finishing 3rd through 6th qualifying for the four-team knockout tournament.

That Playoff Final is a massive spectacle, with the income generated in the Premier League proving a game changer for teams stuck in the Championship. The match is said to be worth upwards of $100 million, with the winner advancing to the Premier League and reaping the rewards of the top flight’s revenue sharing and parachute payments.

The table below is updated as of games through Wednesday, April 6. Promotion probabilities via FiveThirtyEight.

Place Team PTS GP GD Promotion
Probability
1.* Fulham 83 39 +61 >99%
2.* Bournemouth 72 38 +27 88%
3.** Huddersfield 66 40 +9 12%
4.** Luton Town 65 40 +14 17%
5.** Nottingham Forest 64 38 +23 31%
6.** Sheffield United 64 40 +12 21%
7. Middlesbrough 62 39 +11 20%
8. Blackburn 62 40 +10 7%
9. QPR 59 40 +3 <1%
10. Millwall 58 40 +2 <1%

*The top two teams are automatically promoted to the Premier League.
**Teams finishing 3rd-6th qualify for the promotion playoffs.

Fulham is dominating the Championship with a formidable attack that is on pace to set season-long scoring records, but there are still several matches to go with 46 matches played by each team in the Championship regular season.

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