Yamina adviser says party’s remaining MKs sticking around ahead of Chikli ouster
Yamina has made promises to a number of its lawmakers in an effort to staunch the legislator bleed from its own seven-seat party, according to a senior adviser within the faction.
Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked, MK Abir Kara and MK Nir Orbach have been viewed as the most likely Yamina members to bolt from the coalition, following the precedent set by former coalition whip Idit Silman’s majority-eliminating departure on April 6.
Should the government fall due to defections from Yamina and fellow right-wing party New Hope, the premiership would automatically rotate to Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, in line with the coalition agreement. Defections from other parties would keep Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in power during any interim period.
Both Shaked and Kara have received undisclosed promises in order to stay in the government, said the senior Yamina adviser, who claims direct knowledge of the deals.
The adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said that the promises should keep Shaked and Kara in the coalition through the end of the upcoming 10-week summer session. He declined, however, to provide details on what these assurances are.
Orbach, by contrast, may prove to be the weakest link, the adviser said. Three weeks ago, he offered an “ultimatum” to Bennett enumerating his conditions for staying in the coalition. While there has been significant movement on his demands, it might not be enough.
Orbach, like many Yamina members, has suffered under intense pressure from right-wing activists who are against the current government and the decision of the right-wing Yamina to lead a coalition including an Islamist Arab party within its ranks, a historic first.
Chance is also playing a role, as both Orbach’s mother and mother-in-law passed away over the weekend, heightening emotional pressure on the MK.
“Being an MK isn’t what he thought it would be,” the source also added, and said Orbach might not return to politics. There is also an option for Orbach to resign from the Knesset and pass his seat onto the next politician in line on Yamina’s electoral slate.
“This is also what annoyed Idit,” the senior adviser said. As coalition whip, “her office was next to the prime minister’s, she was responsible for counting the votes. But she didn’t have influence.”
On Monday morning, the Knesset House Committee will meet to decide on the fate of Yamina’s rebel MK Amichai Chikli, who never sat with the coalition out of protest. The decision to label Chikli a “defector” would carry significant personal consequences, as well as send a message to other coalition MKs who may be eyeing disembarking from the government ship.
Silman, unlike Chikli, is not currently a target for defector status, the source said. To be a defector, an MK needs to not only leave the party, but vote against it, he explained, adding that Silman currently says she will abstain from votes in order to not vote against the coalition.
Chikli, in contrast to Silman, not only voted against the government’s investiture last June, but has continued to vote against key legislation, even that to which he is ideologically aligned.
There is a small but real potential to immediately stabilize the government, should Chikli quit the Knesset. His seat would revert back to Yamina, and he could be replaced by an MK more amenable to joining the coalition, returning it to a slim 61-seat majority.
If the Knesset’s House Committee indeed labels Chikli a defector tomorrow, as is expected, the lawmaker has two options. The first-time MK can continue on as a legislator and face potentially career-ending sanctions, including a prohibition against running with an existing Knesset faction the next election. Or, he can quickly resign from the parliament.
The source thinks it likely that Chikli, who he deems as having politically “suicidal tendencies,” will remain in the Knesset, despite the consequences of being a defector. Chikli has also been offered diplomatic positions as enticement to leave, in a move previously seen in this government with Meretz MK Ghaida Rinawie Zoabi.
To date, Chikli has publicly refused these overtures and instead has hinted towards forming a new right-wing party, a significant feat for a green politician.
Should Chikli be labeled a defector and then choose to resign, he would avoid sanctions and could run for Knesset, unhindered, in future elections.