What are the possible scenarios in the future?
In Morocco, the signs of the pandemic that we saw at the very beginning gradually disappeared as the epidemiological situation improved. Restrictive measures were put aside by most citizens, and life resumed. Will the pandemic mark its end in this year 2022?
In China, the Covid-19 pandemic has returned to the starting point. Several cities have been confined like Shanghai and others are likely to follow like Beijing. But on the other side of the world, in Morocco, the epidemiological indicators are reassuring.
Indeed, the number of contaminations has dropped significantly in the Kingdom, as has the number of people admitted to intensive care. For deaths and intubated cases, it has been several weeks since Morocco has recorded almost no deaths or cases under intubation. In addition, anti-covid vaccination has taken a step back in recent months, especially with regard to the third booster dose, which has not been widely accepted by the population.
Faced with these indicators, Dr. Said Moutaouakil, member of the Scientific and Technical Committee for the fight against Covid-19, estimated that at the global level, the coronavirus pandemic is not yet over. Rather, it was the Omicron wave that ended, he pointed out, noting that the virus is still circulating among us, but is no longer as virulent as before.
“The rate of Covid-19 contamination is very low. The same applies to critical cases admitted to intensive care. The occupancy rate of REA beds has dropped to 0.2%, while the reproduction index is very low. Regarding the positivity rate of Covid-19 tests, it is less than 1%”recalled the resuscitation specialist.
Around the world, some countries are still experiencing the Omicron wave, continues Dr. Moutouakil, citing the example of China, which did not experience this wave at the same time as Europe thanks, among other things, to the strategy “ Zero Covid which the country has put in place and which it has described as ” unreasonable ” and ” useless“.
Now, the question that arises is to know what are the possible scenarios for this next stage of the pandemic. According to Dr. Moutouakil, there are four. The first scenario is the appearance of other variants that can spread rapidly, but not with the same ferocity, while the second scenario concerns the possibility of the virus becoming extinct.
The third scenario mentioned by the specialist, and which is the most unlikely in his eyes, is the emergence of virulent and ferocious variants, while the fourth scenario is that the virus becomes seasonal.
Whatever the scenario that will emerge in the coming months, Dr. Moutouakil insists on the need to “ prudence“, given that the last covid wave that the world experienced is recent and that there is no visibility on the future. The specialist therefore crosses his fingers and hopes that we are approaching the end of the pandemic during this year, recalling on this occasion that the WHO has still not announced the end of the pandemic.