NBA Playoff Pick ‘Em: It’s tough to pick against the Warriors with that spread
Disclaimer: The author is a lifelong Golden State Warriors fan. He will attempt to remain impartial.
Jordan Poole is the best player in the history of the NBA.
The Warriors guard has gone from the G-League to averaging 29.5 points per game in the NBA Playoffs for a title contender. With a pair of breathtaking performances in Games 1 and 2 against the Denver Nuggets, Poole has cleared a threshold: his game works in the playoffs. The next question is: Does it work on the road? If so, we may as well write off the Nuggets.
The Memphis Grizzlies gave up on letting centre Steven Adams guard Wolves star Karl-Anthony Towns early in their Game 2 win over Minnesota on Tuesday, with his minutes going mostly to Xavier Tillman Sr. The result: A stinker for Towns and a blowout win for the Grizz.
Enough about the distant past though, let’s get to the picks.
Memphis Grizzlies (-1.5, -130) at Minnesota Timberwolves (+1.5, +110): 7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT on Sportsnet
I feel like the books may have overcorrected toward Minnesota after their inspired wins in the play-in tournament and Game 1 of this series. Make no mistake: The Grizz are the better team, and when Anthony Edwards isn’t flaming hot, that fact makes itself very clear. That was the case in Game 2.
Now, without Adams clogging the floor for Memphis, a Ja Morant-Jaren Jackson Jr. spread pick-and-roll is perfectly formulated to force Towns into tough positions on defence, where he’s never shined.
Memphis was the NBA’s best team against the spread this season, covering the spread nearly 64 per cent of the time. As a road favourite, they cover at a 63.2 per cent rate. And this ain’t much of a line to cover. Memphis takes this one despite giving points. I also like D’Angelo Russell OVER 16.5 points (-150) because, at some point, D-Lo is going to realize the series started. I assume.
Golden State Warriors (-2, -130) at Denver Nuggets (+2, +110): 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT
It’s not fair to Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets star and presumptive league MVP turned in one of the greatest individual seasons the NBA has ever seen, posting a record-setting PER (Player Efficiency Rating) of 32.85. For comparison, the previous record was held by Wilt Chamberlain’s 1961-62 season, or as it’s known among hoops heads, “The year Wilt averaged 50 points and 25 rebounds per game.”
And what was The Big Honey’s reward for that greatness? An absolute buzzsaw of a Warriors squad that’s finally (relatively) healthy, and very much feeling itself up 2-0 in the series.
Denver was only 2-5 on the season as home dogs, and although Golden State wasn’t much better as road favourites, it’s tough to pick against the Warriors with a spread this tight. Especially with their crunch-time lineup of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Poole, Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green clocking in at a terrifying +29 in just 11 minutes together.
Full disclosure: I’m not actually betting on this game because one of my hard-and-fast rules for sports betting is never bet on your home team … but my pick is the Dubs (-2) to win running away again. I’ll also throw Aaron Gordon UNDER 14.5 points (-110), since the former Slam Dunk Contest champ has looked completely lost on offence, and give me Monte Morris OVER 11.5 (-115), based on the “role players play better at home” rule.
Dallas Mavericks (+7, +235) at Utah Jazz (-7, -290): 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT
This entire series is a stay-away for me. Dallas is too high-variance without their All-Universe point guard / power forward / gamebreaker Luka Doncic, and Utah is too high-variance because … well, they’re the Utah Jazz. I just want no part of this series as a bettor.
But my job is to make picks against the spread, so give me Dallas (+7) because I simply don’t trust this Utah team one bit. Plus, there’s a chance Doncic returns for this game. And if he does, I like Dallas to win outright. Let’s take the OVER 40.5 (-115) on Donovan Mitchell’s combined points, rebounds and assists, since he’s topped that number in each of the first two games despite some very suspect shooting.
The Sicko Same Game Parlay for Thursday Night pays off at +1400:
Golden State -2
Monte Morris OVER 11.5 points
Aaron Gordon UNDER 14.5 points
Jeff Green OVER 0.5 three pointers made
Nikola Jokic OVER 0.5 three pointers made
As always, play safe and don’t chase.