In high-stakes Lebanon election, Sunni party’s absence adds uncertainty
The Future Movement and its allies were part of a pro-Saudi bloc whose rallying cry is the disarmament of Hezbollah, a pro-Iranian militant group and political party that, along with its allies, currently holds the majority of seats in parliament. Now, Hariri’s withdrawal from politics has created a vacuum that could benefit Hezbollah while leaving Hariri’s significant base of supporters unsure where to cast their votes.
The developments have cast uncertainty over elections with high stakes. Their outcome could determine whether Lebanon, in the midst of its worst-ever financial crisis, receives aid from the international community — at a time when some governments, like France, have been hesitant to fund a government and politicians widely seen as corrupt.
The polls are also being closely watched by millions of Lebanese at home and abroad, for whether they oust members of the widely derided political class. But few in Lebanon expect much to change.
As parties compete to attract Hariri’s large Sunni Muslim following, one leader has stepped forward aggressively to fill the void: Samir Geagea, who rose to prominence during Lebanon’s 15-year civil war as a right-wing Christian warlord. Geagea has been emboldened by his close relationship with Saudi Arabia, Hariri’s longtime ally, and what he claims are promises of support from other Persian Gulf and Western countries if his party secures a parliamentary majority.
His party, the Lebanese Forces, along with an allied party, has emerged with its reputation relatively unscathed following Lebanon’s litany of calamities over the last two years. Citizens are reeling from an economic collapse and a banking crisis, blamed on government mismanagement and corruption, and from the trauma of a massive explosion that ripped through the capital, Beirut, in August 2020, killing more than 200 people and damaging much of the city center.
No senior member of the Lebanese Forces has been implicated in the negligence that led to the explosion. When protesters flooded the streets in 2019, demanding the ouster of political leaders, Geagea announced the resignation of his party’s four ministers from government.
Protesters rejected his move as a political ploy. Geagea is one of six leaders whom many see as the absolute rulers of Lebanon — deeply entrenched figures who are obstacles to even modest reform.
But even Geagea’s detractors admit that his ministers are known for their untainted work: Salem Zahran, a pro-Hezbollah analyst, said in a 2018 tweet, “Give credit where credit is due, their ministers’ performance is good and [shies] away from corruption.”
During an interview at his house in the Lebanese mountains, Geagea asserted that all the problems facing Lebanon, from government corruption to unemployment, could be solved by a parliament controlled by his party.
“If a government has political will,” he said, then the international community, including countries such as France and Saudi Arabia, will help the government. He also claimed that promises were made to assist the country if a “serious” government was formed, but he did not expand on what kind of aid was pledged or by which country.
A trustworthy government, he said, would be able to carry on negotiations with the International Monetary Fund that are necessary for Lebanon’s economic revival and would also unlock stalled aid from France.
All Lebanon needs, Geagea repeated, is “a radical change in power.”
Lebanese Forces has framed itself as a party “for all Lebanese,” and among its supporters, hopes abound that Saudi political backing for Geagea will attract Hariri’s voters.
Maha Yahya, director of the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Center, said it’s possible that Geagea will get more seats from a growing base of Christian and Sunni voters, many of whom see his party as “the only political party that is able to stand up to Hezbollah on the street, but also in parliament.”
But when it comes to the Sunni vote, she said, she suspects that “a good portion” of Future Movement loyalists will not bother, despite pleas from religious leaders to come out and cast a ballot.
“None of the representatives of the Sunni community that are running for parliament today have [Hariri’s] kind of national backing or are perceived as having the kind of capacity to be the leaders of the community, at least not at this stage,” she continued.
Whatever happens, Saudi Arabia, a Sunni monarchy, appears to have turned its back on Hariri, its longtime Sunni ally in Lebanon. A widely circulated op-ed published in early May in the Saudi newspaper Okaz accused Hariri of “throwing himself in Tehran’s lap” and partially blamed him for Lebanon’s collapse.
The op-ed, appearing in Saudi Arabia’s tightly government-controlled press, said Hariri scattered the vote when he called on his followers to boycott elections.
“Abstaining from voting in the coming elections means Sunni seats will go to Hezbollah allies, the historical enemy of not only Sunnis but all the Lebanese who once trusted Saad,” the author, Mohammed al-Said, wrote.
Hariri’s attempts to act as a peacekeeper of sorts in Lebanon’s fractured political system — including by defending Hezbollah — contributed to his deteriorating ties to Saudi Arabia. He was briefly detained by the Saudis in 2017 and forced to submit his resignation, which he later reversed. He finally resigned two years later, after protests swept the country.
The Saudis have continued to punish Lebanon. Last April, Riyadh announced that it was halting agricultural and food imports from Lebanon following a spike in drug busts in the kingdom, as shipments from Lebanon frequently hid millions of Captagon pills — amphetamine tablets whose production analysts and law enforcement officials link to Hezbollah.
As the Saudis weigh their next options in Lebanon, many of Hariri’s supporters seem unswayed by appeals from other parties. “Sheikh Saad is not running, and we do not see anyone else representing us,” said Samer Hammoud, 40, referring to Hariri. “We are boycotting.”
Nader Durgham in Beirut and Suzy Haidamous in Washington contributed to this report.