Mavericks vs. Jazz preview: Can Dallas survive without Doncic?
The series hasn’t even started, and the Dallas Mavericks are already facing a serious blow to their playoff hopes.
In the final game of the regular season, Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic limped off the court with a calf strain. It’s a nightmare scenario for Dallas heading into a series against the Utah Jazz.
How severe is it? We’re not sure, but the Mavericks say there’s no timetable for his return. According to The Athletic’s beat reporter Tim Cato, Doncic would miss two to four games if he’s out for the average amount of time due to calf strains, but the optimal recovery time for that type of injury is three weeks.
An encouraging sign is after he was spotted with a walking boot on Monday, he exercised on a stationary bike at the Mavericks training facility on Wednesday.
But remember, Kevin Durant was recovering from a calf strain before stepping onto the court for Game 5 of the 2019 NBA Finals and tearing his Achilles. It’s hard to picture Dallas rushing back its 23-year-old franchise player.
Without Doncic, this series would look entirely different. Let’s break it down.
Season Series: 2-2
Quick Tape
Mavericks: 52-30 | No. 14 offence | No. 7 defence | No. 7 net rating
Jazz: 49-33 | No. 1 offence | No. 10 defence | No. 3 net rating
Betting Futures
To win series: DAL: +250, UTA: -310
To win championship: DAL: +2800, UTA: +2200
Mavericks Starting 5: Doncic (if healthy)*, Jalen Brunson, Reggie Bullock, Dorian Finney-Smith, Dwight Powell
Mavericks Bench: Spencer Dinwiddie, Maxi Kleber, Josh Green, Marquese Chriss
*If Doncic doesn’t play: Dinwiddie likely moves into the starting lineup, which opens up room for both Frank Ntilikina and Trey Burke on the bench
Jazz Starting 5: Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, Bojan Bogdanovic, Royce O’Neale, Rudy Gobert
Jazz Bench: Jordan Clarkson, Danuel House, Juancho Hernangomez, Rudy Gay, Hassan Whiteside
Pulse of the Mavericks
The pulse of the Mavericks is Doncic, and his Luka Magic. Doncic was slow out of the gate, therefore so was Dallas, and once the superstar guard found his groove, so did the Mavericks. Trading Kristaps Porzingis for Dinwiddie helped. Dallas’ post-All-Star record of 17-6 was second only to the Boston Celtics, who went 17-5, and Doncic finished the season with a mind-boggling 28.4 points, 8.7 assists and 9.1 rebounds stat line. Remove his slow start, and he’s firmly in the MVP conversation with Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
But now he’s out for an undetermined amount of time. That’s a 36.8 usage percentage now missing from the Mavericks offence. So how’s the pulse? Definitely not strong as of right now. Dallas has a good enough supporting cast to withstand Doncic missing one or two games and still come out victorious in the series, thanks to its defence and Dinwiddie and Brunson being capable of stepping up in his absence. But if he misses any more, Utah could walk to the second round relatively unscathed. I don’t see this being a case of the Patrick Ewing Theory.
Pulse of the Jazz
Well, if you ask Mitchell: “This is literally the same thing as last year.”
That quote was in reference to Utah blowing a 25-point lead to the Los Angeles Clippers on March 29, and it being the “same thing” as losing to them in the second round of last season’s playoffs, but his frustrations particularly resonate because it describes where the Jazz are at. It’s the same thing as last year … and it’s getting kind of stale.
The Jazz, despite some drama revolving around head coach Quin Snyder and his players, have rattled off a 49-win season while finishing in the top 10 in offence and defence with steady contributors throughout the lineup. They are a good team, but like in previous seasons, few believe they’re good enough. If they don’t prove otherwise, there could be some significant changes in the off-season – including splitting up the Mitchell-Gobert duo.
On an episode of The Lowe Post podcast, ESPN’s Tim McMahon said:
“The idea that Donovan Mitchell is going to spend his entire career in Utah is absolutely ridiculous. That’s one of the things that’s staring them in the face this summer.”
It’s make-or-break time in Utah.
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Key matchup to watch
Gobert vs. the Mavericks small-ball lineup. With or without Doncic, Dallas’ game plan will be what every team has tried to do against the Jazz in recent years: Play small, stretch Gobert out of the paint with shooters and attack. First off, Dallas will be hunting switches to bring Gobert onto one of its guards, whether that’s Doncic, Dinwiddie or Brunson. Secondly, if the Mavericks run with Finney-Smith for stretches at the 5 instead of Powell, Gobert will have to respect the three-point shot, thus making him less effective as a rim protector. How Gobert and the Jazz adjust could define the series.
Mavericks win if …
First, they need Doncic back before it’s too late. While he’s gone, Brunson and Dinwiddie need to play out of their minds and steal a game or two. Then their defence needs to carry them. Dallas is 8-9 without its superstar in the lineup this season, largely because of defence. The only problem is their defence has slipped since the All-Star break.
If Doncic misses three games and the Mavericks are only down 2-1, they’re in decent shape. He is the best player in this series.
Jazz win if …
Gobert dominates. Considering Mitchell’s past playoff performances, he’s likely to get his points. Gobert is less of a sure thing.
While Dallas will look to make life difficult for him on defence by going small, that also leaves a massive advantage for him to exploit on offence seeing as anyone not named Powell doesn’t stand much of a chance in the paint. If Gobert can hold his own on defence, then punish the Mavericks on the other end, Utah will be tough to beat.